5
Thistle Nil
4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 68
Hamilton · Heineken Low & No Bar Handicap · 5f 7y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 5 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 9th | 300/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 200/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 13/07/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/09/2026 | 14th | 22/1 | 0% | 32% | +0.32 |