IvyArcIvyArc
2

Thornaby Pearl

8yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 74

Hamilton · Heineken Low & No Bar Handicap · 5f 7y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enjoying a productive campaign, scoring for the fourth time in 2026 at Windsor (5f, good to firm) last month. Confirmed himself as still in top form when second of 9 at Ripon (5f, good to soft) 21 days ago and his proven effectiveness on softer ground means he's of interest again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 60 par27/056OR 606 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 59 · 5f3y Goo 136 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Nottingham 11/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 59 · 5f8y Sft 135 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 59 par11/066OR 596 @ Hamilton 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 61 · 5f7y Goo 138 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 62 · 5f7y Goo 140 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 62 par11/076OR 626 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 64 · 5f1y Gd 139 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 67 · 5f GF 131 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 67 par8/085OR 675 @ Windsor 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 68 · 5f21y GF 138 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 5f Sft 137 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 72 par31/085OR 72projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Ripon52nd2nd0
2026-08-17Windsor51st1st0
2026-08-08Newmarket53rd3rd0
2026-07-31Musselburgh61st2nd−1
2026-07-11Hamilton61st2nd−1
2026-06-25Hamilton62nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0525/068/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/05/20264th9/591%63%-0.28
08/06/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
11/06/20264th3/184%40%-0.44
25/06/20262nd9/488%75%-0.13
11/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
31/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
08/08/20263rd9/276%60%-0.16
17/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
31/08/20262nd9/153%88%+0.35