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6

Azure Zain

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 74

Hamilton · Get Closer With A RacingTV Free Trial Handicap · 6f 6y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has a rather ungainly style of racing but left behind his reappearance effort when gaining a first handicap success at Ascot in May. Back to form when a clear third of 11 in handicap at Southwell (6f) 25 days ago and remains on a feasible mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 25 · OR 79 · 6f Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 79 par19/092OR 794 @ Ayr 30/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 77 · 6f Sft 135 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 77 par4 @ Pontefract 20/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 77 · 5f3y Sft 132 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 77 par20/104OR 774 @ Chelmsford City 06/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 76 · 6f Std 131 · beat its mark06/11/2025 · OR 76 par5 @ Southwell 11/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 75 · 6f16y Std 135 · below its mark11/02/2026 · OR 75 par11/025OR 754 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 73 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 73 par3 @ Pontefract 21/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 76 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 76 par21/063OR 763 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 76 · 6f GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 75 · 6f16y Std 140 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 75 par27/085OR 75projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Southwell53rd4th−1
2026-07-20Ayr36th5th+1
2026-06-21Pontefract36th5th+1
2026-05-09Ascot41st1st0
2026-02-11Southwell511th12th−1
2025-11-06Chelmsford City45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/096/1121/0627/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength44%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/202511th50/10%58%+0.58
30/09/20253rd12/137%83%+0.46
20/10/20253rd14/126%82%+0.56
06/11/20255th10/382%56%-0.27
11/02/202611th6/168%0%-0.68
09/05/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
21/06/20266th5/174%0%-0.74
20/07/20266th10/147%38%-0.10
27/08/20263rd11/142%80%+0.38