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8

Native Honey

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 70

Hamilton · Get Closer With A RacingTV Free Trial Handicap · 6f 6y

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

All 3 career victories have come over 7f at Ayr, taking advantage of the drop in grade there in July. His profile is rather all-or-nothing, though, and he was again below form when sixth of 9 in handicap at Thirsk (7f, good to soft) 16 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 70 · 1m2y Goo 130 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 70 par26/044OR 705 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 70 · 1m68y Gd 131 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 7f50y GF 133 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 68 par20/055OR 683 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 71 · 5f182y Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 20 · OR 71 · 7f Gd 126 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 71 par12/064OR 715 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 70 · 7f50y Gd 138 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 72 · 7f50y Goo 138 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 72 par27/074OR 724 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 72 · 7f15y Gd 129 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 71 · 7f Goo 126 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 71 par5/094OR 71projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk46th6th0
2026-08-07Musselburgh45th5th0
2026-07-27Ayr45th5th0
2026-07-06Ayr51st2nd−1
2026-06-12York415th15th0
2026-05-30Carlisle311th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0430/0527/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength30%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/202610th40/10%25%+0.25
03/05/20267th6/168%14%-0.54
20/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
30/05/202611th14/126%23%-0.03
12/06/202615th50/10%26%+0.26
06/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
27/07/20265th9/276%0%-0.76
07/08/20265th28/10%60%+0.60
05/09/20266th12/137%38%+0.01