IvyArcIvyArc
3

Bay Breeze

7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 58

Hamilton · Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Confined Handicap · 6f 6y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fourteen runs since last win in 2025. Has had a rather low key season but kickstarted his campaign with a close third at Carlisle 12 days ago. Lurks on a dangerous mark and goes well in the mud.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength77%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Hamilton 29/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 69 · 6f6y Sft 155 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 69 par29/095OR 695 @ Nottingham 23/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 69 · 6f18y Hvy 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 69 par5 @ Leicester 13/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 68 · 6f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 68 par13/045OR 685 @ Carlisle 18/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 67 · 6f195y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Ripon 03/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 65 · 6f Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 65 par3/065OR 656 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 65 · 5f182y Goo 156 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 62 · 5f182y Goo 139 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 62 par9/076OR 626 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 58 · 5f182y Goo 133 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 58 par9/096OR 58projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle63rd3rd0
2026-08-01Thirsk66th6th0
2026-07-09Carlisle64th4th0
2026-06-09Carlisle64th4th0
2026-06-03Ripon53rd2nd+1
2026-05-18Carlisle57th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0918/059/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/09/20252nd11/271%83%+0.12
23/10/202511th4/179%9%-0.70
13/04/20266th12/137%38%+0.01
18/05/20267th28/10%33%+0.33
03/06/20263rd10/147%78%+0.30
09/06/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
09/07/20264th10/147%70%+0.23
01/08/20266th14/126%38%+0.11
09/09/20263rd11/142%80%+0.38