Ottawa
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 57
Hamilton · Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Confined Handicap · 6f 6y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Newcastle | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-26 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Southwell | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 40% | -0.15 |
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 18/12/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 13/01/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 26/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 06/08/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |