IvyArcIvyArc
9

Summerstorms Dream

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 45

Hamilton · Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Confined Handicap · 6f 6y

#7

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden after 15 runs. Beaten less than 2 lengths but only finished seventh of 11 at Carlisle (6f, good to soft) 12 days ago. Habitual slow starter and others make more appeal.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 48 · 6f GF 123 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 48 par20/056OR 486 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 47 · 6f6y Goo 148 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 46 · 7f50y Gd 129 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 46 par5/076OR 466 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 45 · 6f GF 122 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 124 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 45 par27/076OR 456 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 121 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 45 · 5f7y Goo 121 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 45 par11/086OR 456 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 45 · 6f6y Sft 116 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 45 · 5f182y Goo 121 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 45 par9/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle67th7th0
2026-09-02Hamilton611th11th0
2026-08-11Hamilton63rd3rd0
2026-08-08Ayr66th6th0
2026-07-27Ayr66th6th0
2026-07-20Ayr62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0520/0711/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength63%

Delivery trend +6.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/20265th6/168%56%-0.13
10/06/20267th9/276%0%-0.76
05/07/20267th25/10%40%+0.40
20/07/20262nd11/271%80%+0.09
27/07/20266th9/276%29%-0.48
08/08/20266th22/10%55%+0.55
11/08/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
02/09/202611th25/10%17%+0.17
09/09/20267th14/126%40%+0.14