1
Winter Crown
6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 60
Hamilton · Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Confined Handicap · 6f 6y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength54%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Southwell | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Southwell | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 29/09/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 55% | -0.24 |
| 17/10/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 08/11/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 21/11/2025 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 05/12/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 04/01/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |