Rafaella
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 68
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 05/08/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 20/08/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 15/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 01/10/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 15/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 28/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |