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Relentless Chick

3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 78

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

86%

Place Prob

60%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f110y Slo 1208/10C6C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 75 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 75 par25/10C5OR 75C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 70 · 5f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 70 par26/05C5OR 70C0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 5f110y Slo 12210/06C?C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 81 · 5f110y 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 81 par8/07C5OR 81C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 5f110y 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 79 par27/07C5OR 79projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st0th+1
2026-07-08Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st0th+1
2026-06-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2026-05-26Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st0th+1
2025-10-25Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th7th+1
2025-10-08Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1025/1026/0510/068/0727/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/10/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
25/10/20258th10/147%30%-0.17
26/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
10/06/20264th6/168%73%+0.04
08/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
27/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26