Sunny's Flame

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 70

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲2

Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.1

Today:

Class gap: -1.6

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-14	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-08-31	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	6th	+1	3.6
2026-08-20	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	2nd	4th	−2	5.6
2026-08-06	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	2nd	4th	−2	5.6
2026-07-27	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	5th	−2	4.6
2026-05-07	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	4th	6th	−2	3.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/03/2026	8th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
15/04/2026	6th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
29/04/2026	6th	9/2	76%	17%	-0.60
07/05/2026	4th	2/1	89%	50%	-0.39
27/07/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	67%	+0.19
06/08/2026	2nd	14/1	26%	83%	+0.57
20/08/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	88%	+0.11
31/08/2026	7th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
14/09/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12