IvyArcIvyArc
5

Cover Art

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 55

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 30/07/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 38 · 1m Gd 117 · beat its mark30/07/2025 · OR 38 par30/07C6OR 38C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 07/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 47 · 1m70y Fas 120 · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 47 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 12/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 45 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 45 par12/05C6OR 45C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 44 · 5f110y Slo 124 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 44 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 30 · 1m110y Slo 124 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 30 par10/06C6OR 30C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 21 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 21 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 37 · 1m110y Fm 119 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 37 par15/07C6OR 37C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 41 · 1m110y 124 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 41 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 01/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 57 · 1m Fm 121 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 57 par1/09C6OR 57projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th6th0
2026-07-29Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-07-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th5th0
2026-07-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-06-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?9th9th0
2026-05-25Horseshoe Indianapolis?9th12th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0725/0515/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/07/202510th50/10%18%+0.18
07/08/20256th33/10%29%+0.29
12/05/202611th50/10%0%0.00
25/05/20269th33/10%0%0.00
10/06/20269th50/10%0%0.00
06/07/20263rd33/10%80%+0.80
15/07/20265th20/10%50%+0.50
29/07/20263rd5/174%75%+0.01
01/09/20266th16/116%55%+0.39