5
El Payasito
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 72
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-04-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |