God And Luck

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 42

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-03	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-26	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2026-06-11	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-05-21	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-05-02	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	11th	9th	+2	1.0
2026-04-08	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength59%

Delivery trend +4.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
25/08/2025	5th	13/2	66%	56%	-0.10
30/09/2025	6th	5/2	87%	44%	-0.42
08/04/2026	6th	15/2	61%	50%	-0.11
02/05/2026	11th	5/1	74%	9%	-0.65
21/05/2026	3rd	4/1	79%	60%	-0.19
11/06/2026	6th	9/2	76%	38%	-0.39
26/08/2026	7th	14/1	26%	0%	-0.26
03/09/2026	1st	8/1	58%	100%	+0.42