It's My Song

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 57

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength38%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-20	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-05	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-07-08	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-06-15	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2026-05-25	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-05-11	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▬

Strength88%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/05/2026	8th	10/1	47%	13%	-0.35
25/05/2026	5th	66/1	0%	56%	+0.56
15/06/2026	7th	20/1	0%	25%	+0.25
08/07/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	82%	+0.34
05/08/2026	6th	9/2	76%	38%	-0.39
20/08/2026	1st	10/3	82%	100%	+0.18