Nothingbutjustice

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 84

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

8/5

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

73%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.5

Today:

Class gap: +2.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-27	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-06-15	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength83%

Delivery trend -15.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/06/2026	1st	4/1	79%	100%	+0.21
27/07/2026	5th	12/1	37%	43%	+0.06