7
Night Watcher
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 83
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength53%
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 73% | -0.21 |