Campaign Promises
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
89%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-01-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 27/02/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |