Don't Cross Alexis
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 76
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2024 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 03/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/02/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 38% | -0.55 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |