6
Rye Smile
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 78
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 25/04/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/08/2025 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 10% | -0.58 |
| 18/12/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |