8
Countthecarats
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 71
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 28/06/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 25/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 29/10/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/12/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |