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3

Illegal Contact

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 93

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

93%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 30/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 84 · 1m Fas 118 · below its mark30/07/2025 · OR 84 par30/07C5OR 84C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 03/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 81 · 5f110y 118 · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 81 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 79 par14/10C8OR 79C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 03/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 77 · 6f 122 · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 77 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 83 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 83 par22/04C5OR 83C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 83 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 83 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 86 · 6f 122 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 86 par22/06C5OR 86C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 85 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 85 par13/08C5OR 85projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-07-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-06-22Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-06-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-04-22Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2025-11-03Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/073/1122/0613/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength93%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/07/20258th25/10%13%+0.13
03/09/20256th14/126%29%+0.02
14/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
03/11/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
22/04/20264th2/189%57%-0.32
02/06/20262nd13/266%88%+0.22
22/06/20262nd11/271%80%+0.09
28/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
13/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21