5
Joe The Tailor
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 91
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |