4
Muir Woods
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 94
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-02-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-02-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +8.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 27/12/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 08/02/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 26/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |