2
Neutron
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 91
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 24/09/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 15/10/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 11% | -0.65 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |