1
This Is The One
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 86
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 130y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA76 | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-07-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength70%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 19/06/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 28/07/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |