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Tw Trumps Secrets

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 86

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 130y

#4

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength22%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/05/2024 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1f30y Slo 12414/05C8BHA78 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 27/06/2024 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 78 · 1f130y Fas 124 · below its mark27/06/2024 · OR 78 parBHA76 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 26/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 76 · 1f130y Fas 124 · below its mark26/10/2024 · OR 76 par26/1076OR 76C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 81 · 1f110y Slo 126 · beat its mark14/05/2025 · OR 81 parBHA86 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 01/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 86 · 1f180y Gd 126 · below its mark01/07/2025 · OR 86 par1/0786OR 86C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 80 · 1f130y Fas 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 80 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 85 · 1f130y 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 85 par4/07C5OR 85C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 83 · 1f130y Fas 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 83 par6/08C5OR 83projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd1st+1
2026-07-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th7th+1
2026-06-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd1st+1
2025-07-01Horseshoe IndianapolisBHA863rd7th−4
2025-05-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2024-10-26Horseshoe IndianapolisBHA763rd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0514/054/076/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength93%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/05/20241st10/382%100%+0.18
27/06/20242nd10/382%88%+0.05
26/10/20243rd16/116%78%+0.62
14/05/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
01/07/20253rd6/492%75%-0.17
02/06/20262nd16/116%80%+0.64
04/07/20268th11/271%13%-0.59
06/08/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36