10
If I Tell You
8yo Gelding · 0-0
La Capelle · Prix Com De Com Thierache Du Centre - Attele · 1m 5f 147y
#14
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Montier-En-Der | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Enghien | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Enghien | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Vincennes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-27 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 4-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength22%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/01/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/01/2026 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 27% | -0.47 |
| 27/01/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 31/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 54% | +0.06 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 80/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 02/08/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 23/08/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |