12
Joyeux Meslois
7yo Gelding · 10-3
La Capelle · Prix L'aisne Nouvelle - Monte · 1m 5f 147y
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Cabourg | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Reims | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Vincennes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-20 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Cabourg | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Cabourg | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 16/10/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 17/11/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 64% | +0.22 |
| 22/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 77% | +0.08 |
| 02/01/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 11% | -0.42 |
| 20/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 16/02/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 69% | -0.23 |
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 03/07/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 31% | +0.04 |