10
Kervelean
6yo Gelding · 0-0
La Capelle · Prix Pays De Thierache - Attele · 1m 5f 147y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Divonne Les Bains | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Enghien | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | La Capelle | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Enghien | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-25 | Vincennes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.38 |
| 02/11/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 25/12/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 10/03/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 69% | +0.27 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |