3
Lio Renka
5yo Filly · 0-0
La Capelle · Prix Saveurs De Nos Fermes - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#15
Rank
Odds
55/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | La Capelle | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Nantes | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Vichy | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Cholet | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Vincennes | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Vincennes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 6-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2024 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 70% | +0.65 |
| 25/01/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 14/03/2025 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 29% | -0.63 |
| 03/01/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 13/01/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.57 |
| 27/04/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 18/05/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |
| 01/06/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 02/09/2026 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |