11
Lightning Jiel
5yo Gelding · 0-0
La Capelle · Prix Office De Tourisme De Thierache - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#13
Rank
Odds
45/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Reims | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cabourg | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Strasbourg | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Enghien | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vincennes | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Vincennes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 10/11/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 18/01/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 05/02/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/08/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 01/09/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 13/09/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |