Agitator

2yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 74

Leicester · HSBC UK Agriculture Nursery · 1m 53y

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼3

Strength83%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 12.3)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C2.5

Today: 5

Class gap: +2.6

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-30	Goodwood	2	14th	10th	+3	1.0
2026-06-17	Royal Ascot	1	24th	19th	+4	1.0
2026-05-23	Windsor	5	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-05-15	Newmarket	2	10th	6th	+3	3.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength42%

Delivery trend +5.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/05/2026	10th	14/1	26%	25%	-0.01
23/05/2026	1st	9/2	76%	100%	+0.24
17/06/2026	24th	125/1	0%	4%	+0.04
30/07/2026	14th	66/1	0%	24%	+0.24