Pequenita

2yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 72

Leicester · HSBC UK Agriculture Nursery · 1m 53y

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

69%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C4.0

Today: 5

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Kempton	5	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-17	Lingfield	5	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-09	Carlisle	3	3rd	1st	+2	9.4
2026-06-10	Kempton	3	4th	2nd	+2	8.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength95%

Delivery trend +9.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
10/06/2026	4th	11/4	86%	63%	-0.23
09/07/2026	3rd	4/1	79%	50%	-0.29
17/08/2026	2nd	10/11	95%	75%	-0.20
05/09/2026	2nd	4/1	79%	86%	+0.07