IvyArcIvyArc
8

Arabica Queen

2yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 69

Leicester · Racing Bet-Builder At Spreadex Sports Fillies' Nursery · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made it third time lucky in a 6f Newbury novice in June. Creditable third of 6 in nursery at Windsor next time. Below par on next 2 starts but shaped as if back in form when never-nearer third of 12 in 6f Lingfield nursery 11 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f12y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/0535 @ Bath 26/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f160y Fm 12826/0554 @ Newbury 23/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS23/0644 @ Windsor 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 74 · 6f12y GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 74 par20/074OR 742 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 74 par31/072OR 744 @ Sandown 28/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 73 · 5f10y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 73 par28/084OR 735 @ Lingfield 10/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 71 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 71 par10/095OR 71projClass-projected finish: 7th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Lingfield53rd3rd0
2026-08-28Sandown45th4th+1
2026-07-31Goodwood211th7th+3
2026-07-20Windsor43rd2nd+1
2026-06-23Newbury41st0th+1
2026-05-26Bath52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0520/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength56%

Delivery trend +3.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/20264th33/10%40%+0.40
26/05/20262nd6/492%88%-0.05
23/06/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
20/07/20263rd11/271%60%-0.11
31/07/202611th33/10%41%+0.41
28/08/20265th8/158%43%-0.15
10/09/20263rd20/10%82%+0.82