Bearly Blue

2yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 72

Leicester · Racing Bet-Builder At Spreadex Sports Fillies' Nursery · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength54%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C4.0

Today: 5

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-11	Chester	5	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-02	Nottingham	3	5th	3rd	+2	7.4
2026-06-12	Goodwood	4	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-05-20	Kempton	4	7th	6th	+1	4.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength22%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/05/2026	7th	7/2	82%	33%	-0.48
12/06/2026	2nd	9/1	53%	86%	+0.33
02/07/2026	5th	11/4	86%	20%	-0.66
11/09/2026	4th	15/8	90%	63%	-0.28