14

Bladey Lady

2yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 57

Leicester · Racing Bet-Builder At Spreadex Sports Fillies' Nursery · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

49%

Place Prob

32%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made it 2-2 in nurseries when seeing off 15 rivals at Thirsk (6f, good) last Monday. Her and the second came 6 lengths clear of the third and a 6 lb penalty may not prevent her completing a hat-trick.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Beverley 12/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS12/0544 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS28/0545 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 1288/0656 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 53 · 6f1y Std 128 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 53 par2/096OR 536 @ Thirsk 14/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 57 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 57 par14/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 6th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Thirsk61st2nd1
2026-09-02Newcastle61st2nd1
2026-06-08Pontefract57th7th0
2026-05-28Ripon44th3rd+1
2026-05-12Beverley43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0528/058/062/0914/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/05/20263rd11/142%60%+0.18
28/05/20264th66/10%50%+0.50
08/06/20267th100/10%40%+0.40
02/09/20261st28/10%100%+1.00
14/09/20261st7/282%100%+0.18