13
Penny Arcade
2yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 65
Leicester · Racing Bet-Builder At Spreadex Sports Fillies' Nursery · 6f
#16
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength52%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Leicester | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ripon | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Beverley | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Musselburgh | 2 | 4th | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 4-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength36%
Delivery trend +15.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 1/4 | 99% | 67% | -0.32 |
| 17/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 29/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |