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11

Rocsane

2yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 68

Leicester · Racing Bet-Builder At Spreadex Sports Fillies' Nursery · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair form when placing 4 times in maiden/novice events at up to 7f. Hard to knock her consistency but looks more exposed than some of the other nursery newcomers.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Yarmouth 13/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 6f3y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS13/0544 @ Lingfield 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/0645 @ Yarmouth 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 6f3y GF 12526/0655 @ Windsor 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 70 · 6f12y GF 122 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 70 par3/085OR 704 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 69 · 7f3y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 69 par30/084OR 69projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Yarmouth43rd2nd+1
2026-08-03Windsor52nd2nd0
2026-06-26Yarmouth52nd2nd0
2026-06-04Lingfield43rd2nd+1
2026-05-13Yarmouth45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/054/0626/063/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 11-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength15%

Delivery trend -15.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/05/20265th40/10%43%+0.43
04/06/20263rd17/255%78%+0.23
26/06/20262nd8/158%92%+0.34
03/08/20262nd6/594%80%-0.14
30/08/20263rd11/1094%78%-0.16