IvyArcIvyArc
6

Sioux Moon

2yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 69

Leicester · Racing Bet-Builder At Spreadex Sports Fillies' Nursery · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped encouragingly when 4 lengths second of 10 in 5f Southwell maiden 3 weeks ago. Will prove as effective back at 6f and rates an interesting one for nurseries.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength65%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Leicester 29/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS29/0744 @ Chepstow 18/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 5f16y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0844 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 4f214y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS31/084projClass-projected finish: 4th of 16
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell42nd1st+1
2026-08-18Chepstow45th4th+1
2026-07-29Leicester43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0718/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%

Delivery trend +12.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/07/20263rd18/15%33%+0.28
18/08/20265th3/184%43%-0.41
31/08/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52