11
Ezra Cee
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 60
Leicester · Pattinson Auction Winning Bid Handicap · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength52%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Leicester | 6 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2025-12-04 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Brighton | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2024-10-03 | Newcastle | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2024 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 12/07/2024 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 21/09/2024 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 03/10/2024 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 31/08/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |
| 27/10/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 04/12/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 08/09/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |