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8

Neptune Legend

7yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 64

Leicester · Pattinson Auction Winning Bid Handicap · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has done very well since rejoining this yard in the spring after a spell with James Owen, winning 3 times during the summer. His form has dipped since but he did have an excuse last time (rider lost irons at start).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 23/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 53 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark23/03/2026 · OR 53 par23/036OR 536 @ Wolverhampton 09/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 52 · 5f21y Std 133 · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 51 · 5f160y Goo 131 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 51 par22/056OR 516 @ Brighton 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 51 · 5f215y Goo 135 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 59 · 5f21y GF 137 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 59 par29/066OR 596 @ Bath 01/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 59 · 5f160y Fm 135 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 59 par4 @ Sandown 23/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 65 · 5f10y GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 65 par23/074OR 652 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 65 · 5f215y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 65 par2 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 17th of 17 · OR 64 · 5f160y GS 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 64 par13/092OR 64projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath217th13th+3
2026-08-23Brighton214th10th+3
2026-07-23Sandown46th5th+1
2026-07-01Bath61st2nd−1
2026-06-29Windsor65th6th−1
2026-05-29Brighton61st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0329/0523/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/03/20265th7/163%50%-0.13
09/04/20267th15/261%25%-0.36
22/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
29/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
29/06/20265th11/142%67%+0.25
01/07/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
23/07/20266th9/153%17%-0.36
23/08/202614th25/10%13%+0.13
13/09/202617th17/255%0%-0.55