The Bitter Moose
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 66
Leicester · Pattinson Auction Winning Bid Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Ascot | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Brighton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 25/08/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 03/10/2025 | 17th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 09/05/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 41% | +0.15 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |