The Flying Seagull
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 66
Leicester · Pattinson Auction Winning Bid Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Brighton | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bath | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 28/06/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 16/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 23/03/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 05/06/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 11/07/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 10% | +0.05 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |