Bearin Up
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 77
Leicester · Fireworks Festival 7th November 2026 - Book Now Handicap · 1m 53y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | York | 2 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chester | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hamilton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Nottingham | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 45% | +0.03 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 86% | +0.30 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 21/08/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |