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9

Dovey Moon

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 73

Leicester · Fireworks Festival 7th November 2026 - Book Now Handicap · 1m 53y

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark for the season in 1m Salisbury handicap in May. Not proving easy to catch right since, however, finishing sixth of 9 at Windsor latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 18/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 69 · 1m Sta 134 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 69 par18/095OR 692 @ Nottingham 02/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 69 · 1m75y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 69 par5 @ Nottingham 15/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 69 · 1m75y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 69 par15/105OR 695 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 75 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 75 · 1m Gd 130 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 75 par23/054OR 754 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 78 · 1m2f56y Gd 133 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 78 · 1m6y Goo 136 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 78 par29/064OR 784 @ Newmarket 18/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 77 · 1m GF 133 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Windsor 07/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m31y Goo 137 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 75 par7/094OR 75projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Windsor46th6th0
2026-07-18Newmarket45th5th0
2026-06-29Pontefract43rd3rd0
2026-06-12York414th14th0
2026-05-23Salisbury41st1st0
2026-04-26Wetherby57th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0926/0429/067/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength20%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20255th12/137%50%+0.13
02/10/20253rd11/142%82%+0.40
15/10/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
26/04/20267th18/15%45%+0.40
23/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
12/06/202614th16/116%24%+0.08
29/06/20263rd7/163%67%+0.04
18/07/20265th8/158%20%-0.38
07/09/20266th16/116%38%+0.22