5
Home Hero
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 79
Leicester · Fireworks Festival 7th November 2026 - Book Now Handicap · 1m 53y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Sandown | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Newbury | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Haydock | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Newmarket | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Sandown | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Newbury | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength42%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 12/06/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 13% | -0.48 |
| 02/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |