14
Island Bear
3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 73
Leicester · Fireworks Festival 7th November 2026 - Book Now Handicap · 1m 53y
#10
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Newbury | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Doncaster | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Chepstow | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nottingham | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Southwell | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 25/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 02/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 07/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 56% | +0.50 |