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4

Metallo

5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 76

Leicester · Fireworks Festival 7th November 2026 - Book Now Handicap · 1m 53y

#11

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Eighteen runs since last win in 2023 but latest second of 10 Kempton (1m) was a good effort. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Nottingham 04/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 85 · 1m75y Gd 135 · below its mark04/06/2025 · OR 85 par4/064OR 854 @ Lingfield 10/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 83 · 1m2f Std 133 · beat its mark10/02/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 84 · 1m1f104y Std 134 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 84 par20/034OR 844 @ Lingfield 27/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 84 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 83 · 1m2f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 83 par3/043OR 834 @ Lingfield 27/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 82 · 1m4f Std 132 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Lingfield 12/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 80 · 1m1y Std 135 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 80 par12/054OR 804 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m2f219y Sta 128 · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 75 · 1m Sta 137 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 75 par12/084OR 75projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Kempton42nd2nd0
2026-06-29Kempton410th10th0
2026-05-12Lingfield44th4th0
2026-04-27Lingfield44th4th0
2026-04-03Lingfield36th5th+1
2026-03-27Lingfield44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0627/0312/0512/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength81%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/20254th3/184%25%-0.59
10/02/20262nd16/116%91%+0.75
20/03/202611th13/266%9%-0.57
27/03/20264th12/137%63%+0.26
03/04/20266th12/137%62%+0.25
27/04/20264th17/255%57%+0.02
12/05/20264th13/266%63%-0.03
29/06/202610th14/126%18%-0.08
12/08/20262nd11/486%89%+0.03