3
Spy Kingdom
4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 79
Leicester · Fireworks Festival 7th November 2026 - Book Now Handicap · 1m 53y
#12
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Meydan | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Meydan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Meydan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Hamilton | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-05-26 | Redcar | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-05-01 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 01/05/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 91% | -0.03 |
| 26/05/2025 | 4th | 16/5 | 83% | 0% | -0.83 |
| 26/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 70% | +0.04 |
| 09/01/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 13/02/2026 | 14th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |